At a Glance

• The 2023 and 2024 vintages are repriceable, short-dated, and scattered across multiple lien holders. Somebody is going to consolidate them. The only question is whether it is the incumbent.
• Consolidation sells on operations, not rate. A controller reconciling four remittances, four insurance certificates, and four sets of UCC filings will trade basis points for one invoice and one lien holder.
• The mechanics kill more of these deals than pricing does: unexercised FMV buyouts, termination language written by the incumbent, appraisal gaps on mixed-vintage fleets, and UCC-3 sequencing.
• Most lenders learn about a consolidation when the payoff request arrives. At that point the conversation is already over and the retention call is theater.

What the 2023 and 2024 Vintages Actually Look Like